William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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MORE POLLING TO CORRECT MEDIA IMPRESSIONS - AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  There are any number of stories out there announcing the death of the Republican Party.  But wait.  Don't the voters have a say in this?  Fox News reports:

Some in the media believe the Republican Party is washed up and dying. Leslie Savan wrote in The Nation earlier this month: "What sort of psychological bent would lead people to want to be part of a dead-end political party like the GOP has become?"

But, a new Gallup poll from May 7 – 10 shows it's not quite that bad for the GOP. Thirty-two percent of participants in the survey identified themselves as Republicans, 32 percent as Democrats, and 34 percent Independents. And if you include Independent "leaners," Republicans and Democrats are also tied at 45 percent between May 7 – 10.

Compared to last month, from April 20 — 21, Republican Party identification has risen five percentage points while Democrats have fallen four. With "leaners" included, the GOP gained six and Democrats lost five.

COMMENT:  We always caution that polls are snapshots in time.  But the trend here is more than interesting.  Combine this please with the solid rejection, in California, of all ballot initiatives on Tuesday, which would have raised taxes.  California is a liberal state, and the voters knew that rejecting the new taxes would reduce services.  Yet, they turned them down decisively. 

Maybe we're seeing the start of a backlash.  Maybe not.  It will take more time and more polling, but I'm encouraged.

May 21, 2009